2023 was a very special year for real estate in Tremblant. It started at the tail end of the frenzy, and was sprinkled with a series of interest rate hikes that led to a slowdown of the market, both sales and rentals.
Here are my 5 predictions for 2024. Spoiler alert: Buyers, now is the time to get in the market.
1. Interest rates will remain stable, and slowly start decreasing.
The first half 2024 will carry the period of hesitation, with buyers and sellers still waiting to see when the rates will begin to decrease. For the second half of the year, we should see buyers slowly surface from the sidelines as rates (should) begin to drop. Many experts have said that Bank of Canada rates could be a full 1% lower at the end of 2024, keep in mind that every % interest rates translate approximately to 65,000$ in buying power. While properties below $500,000 did not experience a significant slowdown, price points between $500,000 and $1,000,000 will see a pivot in consumer behavior that will favor sellers as buyers will find it easier to qualify for their financing.
2. Major sales will continue to thrive
2023 has seen some very high profile sales in the Tremblant area, including 2 single-family estates over 12M$ on Lake Tremblant, a 2,600-acre property in Amherst for 13.2M$, and a 660-acre property close to Lake Mercier for almost 9M$.
Coming into 2024, it is cautiously optimistic that we should see more major sales, as market uncertainties tend to calm down and our loonie remains weak compared to the USD.
Since 2022 and until December 2024, Canada still has the Act prohibiting the Purchase of Residential Property by Non-Canadians, but Tremblant, among other smaller municipalities, are excluded from the act.
Lastly, with a solid list of high-profile events at the resort, the latest being the women’s Giant Slalom World-cup signed for 5 more years, Tremblant still attracts big investments with the action generated by the events and by the message it sends that Tremblant is a sound place to invest going forward.
3. The scarcity of buildable lots will begin
The last 2 years have seen a lot (I mean a LOT) of changes in the bylaws surrounding construction and subdivisions on the territory of Mont-Tremblant.
At the time of writing these lines, the moratory on subdivision is still in place, but a new development plan is supposedly coming in 2024.
Several experts predict that the new plan will be significantly more restrictive when it comes to new subdivisions outside of the urban areas, with tighter and more complex bylaws around the creation of roads, and the size of the new subdivided lots.
These changes in bylaws should make it much harder and more costly to developers to subdivide, therefore slowing the supply of buildable lots in the coming years.
I believe this will translate into an increase in vacant lots prices, especially those that are ready to build and within 10 minutes from the ski resort.
4. Seasonal rentals will go back to normal
Seasonal rentals (typically 5 months in the winter, 5 months in the summer) lived their best life through 2021 and 2022. Recent and well located condos & houses were rented at prices never seen before, and sadly, prices we might not see for a few years.
Several factors created the hype – including work-from-home, new cash created through the record sale of another property, traveling restrictions, but most fundamentally, low supply and high demand.
Now for the 23-24 season, the party is mostly over for owners looking to 3-peat record rental years. We’re seeing prices gradually going back to the previous logical, rational and justifiable rates we had prior to the pandemic. Tremblant’s strong market for seasonal rentals will remain active and healthy, but buyers and owners should budget conservative figures when comparing to the rates we saw in the past 3 years.
5. Prices will rise again
Full disclosure – I don’t have a crystal ball, nor should this be taken as financial advice. Be a grown-up.
Now for the million dollar question – what will happen with the real estate prices in the Tremblant area in 2024 ?
In the light of the trends highlighted above, I think prices will start increasing again, once we pass through the uncertainty period we are in right now. The increase might start slowly next spring, and at a much more sustainable rate that what we lived in 2021.
Economic, legal and political factors all make a pressure towards a price increase, either through positive pressure on demand, and a restriction on supply.
Conclusion – Buyers; opportunities are now !
Many buyers have been waiting for the crash to get in the market. Let me break it to you bluntly; we are in the crash right now. It’s a soft one, but we’re right in the middle of it.
So buyers, in short, now is the time for opportunities. For a few months now we’ve witnessed some sales drastically under asking price. Some listings have been sitting on the market for over 6 months, sometimes with 2 or more price reductions. Most sellers are aware that they missed the boat, and that the picture is not getting prettier in the short term, so now is the time to make aggressive offers. What’s the worst that can happen ?
And remember, we know rates are high. They will get lower at some point. You can always renegotiate your mortgage, but you can’t renegotiate your purchase price.
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